5-MINUTE READ May 21, 2025
RESEARCH REPORT
Making autonomous supply chains real
In brief
- Supply chains are facing pressing challenges amid a changing trade environment and declining returns from traditional business efficiency strategies.
- Autonomous supply chains can improve efficiency, sustainability and strengthen resilience to cyber-attacks, talent shortages and disruptions.
- Our survey shows 25% of respondents have begun their journey toward autonomy, while the current median supply chain autonomy maturity is just 16%.
Reinventing supply chains to maximize gains
Traditional efficiency strategies are calling for a rethink. Meanwhile, growing online demand, climate change, a changing trade environment and workforce shortages are putting unpredictable pressure on supply chains. To create value, supply chains need to be fast, agile and sustainable, not just cost-efficient.
Could AI-powered autonomy be the key to unlocking this?
The most advanced autonomous supply chain models combine automation (machinery replacing manual tasks) and delegation (machines independently making decisions), while maintaining the synergy of human + machine collaboration. Transparency across enterprise functions is another key ingredient for enabling autonomous decision-making, particularly for advanced technologies like agentic AI, which require end-to-end visibility to function effectively.
Autonomous systems can deliver benefits in financial performance, operational efficiency, sustainability and resilience. Our survey shows that nearly 66% of the respondents plan to advance supply chain autonomy to the next level by 2035, of which approximately 40% aspire to achieve a higher degree of autonomy where the system handles most operational decisions.
Survey respondents estimate that investing 0.9% of revenue per year is necessary to develop an autonomous supply chain
In addition, respondents anticipate making the following gains:
5%
increase in EBITA and 7% improvement in ROCE
27%
increase in EBITA and 7% improvement in ROCE
5%
increase in EBITA and 7% improvement in ROCE
39%
of companies anticipate more efficient, circular supply chains and a 16% fall in carbon emissions
62%
decrease in response time and 60% in recovery times from disruptions
Breaking through the challenges of autonomous supply chains
Our survey shows that most companies are still in the early stages of adopting autonomous capabilities. While 25% of respondents have begun their journey toward autonomy, the current median maturity across supply chain activities is only 16% on an index ranging from 0% (fully manual) to 100% (fully autonomous). However, this median maturity is projected to rise significantly to 42% within the next five to ten years. Most companies surveyed are focused on gradual improvements, aiming for higher levels of automation and delegation as technologies progress.
Even with the clear benefits, many companies are hesitant to fully embrace autonomous supply chains. They’re held back by concerns like data privacy, poor data quality, immature processes, and low trust in AI. But no matter where a company is on this journey, these challenges can be tackled—and the path forward starts with a few key actions.
The roadmap toward autonomous supply chains
Three key actions set leaders apart on their journey toward autonomous supply chains:
01
Build a solid and secure data foundation
02
Invest in critical AI-enabling technologies, then scale strategically
03
Restructure how people and technology work together
Staying ahead of the curve
The time for companies to innovate and adapt to the evolving landscape is now. Autonomous systems not only promise value creation but also prepare organizations for future technological advancements, including artificial general intelligence (AGI) and quantum computing. By focusing on critical outcomes and fostering human + machine collaboration, businesses can unlock new levels of efficiency and resiliency throughout their end-to-end supply chains.